BEACH JEWELER IS A GAMBLER - SNOW KIDDING CUSTOMERS OF SANDY'S TOUCH OF GOLD HAVE BEEN OFFERED REFUNDS SHOULD IT SNOW 4 INCHES IN TIMES SQUARE TONIGHT. THE TROUBLE IS, MA NATURE MAY NOT COOPERATE.

One of these years, jeweler David Nygaard contends, it will snow a lot on New Year's Eve in Times Square.

And when it does, shoppers at his Beach store will receive refund checks for their holiday purchases. But if you were among the 500 or so people who bought items at Sandy's Touch of Gold during December's first 24 days, do not count on the cash this year.

Forecasters say the latest winter storm - which left a dusting of snow in the Big Apple after a night of heavy rain - won't stick around long enough to produce measurable snow on Broadway.

"Darn," Nygaard said Tuesday when he heard the news. "I was hoping it would snow."

Like a growing number of retailers nationwide, Nygaard buys weather insurance to run special promotions.

He paid a Manhasset, N.Y.-based insurer $2,000 for a policy that would return money to his patrons in the event of at least 4 inches of snow during certain hours tonight in Times Square.

For four straight New Year's Eves, Nygaard has purchased policies from Customized Worldwide Weather Insurance. He also buys a rain policy for wedding days, whereby couples receive refunds when their ceremonies are drenched.

Though he focuses most of his attention on knowing high-end gems and gifts, Nygaard considers the insurance promotion a key part of his Hilltop store's marketing effort.

In fact, he said, the television "snow" ads draw so much attention that people sometimes stop him in restaurants and refer to him as, "that guy who hopes it snows."

If Mother Nature happens to cooperate, Nygaard pitches in the commercials, you win. If she doesn't, of course, the insurance company wins.

Either way, Nygaard pays the same fee.

The best situation for him would be an insurance payoff to customers in February, just in time for them to spend part of their refunds on the perfect Valentine's gift.

Last year, in one of the more unusual weather promotion payouts, Worldwide Weather refunded more than $70,000 to scores of Casper, Wyo., shoppers who won a snow-or-wind gamble. Sustained winds of greater than 40 mph satisfied a jewelry store's holiday offer.

More than 200 retailers nationwide buy into similar insurance policies with Worldwide, said Michele Borday, the agency's director of promotions.

A Pennsylvania jewelry store became the first to do so six years ago as part of a Christmas sale. The snow didn't fall in that case. An auto dealership in Danville, Va., joined the game this year with a white Christmas promotion that would have returned $5,000 to buyers had it snowed 3 inches.

Worldwide Weather is one of a few U.S. underwriters covering outdoor activities and climactic scenarios.

Aside from Nygaard's promotion and past concerts in Hampton Roads, the agency also has written policies across the country for Super Bowl parties and for on-location film and TV commercials.

"Anything that is affected by the weather," Borday said, "we have a touch on."

The agency uses a network of atmospheric observers to verify results and sets rates based upon the probability of a particular weather event and the value of the merchandise.

Had Nygaard opted for a 1-inch snowfall promotion, he would have had to pay more for coverage. A 10-inch promotion would have cost him less.

He was looking at stiff odds: New York City typically receives 20 to 30 inches of snow all winter.

That means the chance isn't great for significant accumulation on any one day, explained Pete Wichrowski, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service station in Upton, N.Y.

To be sure, he left no wiggle room in tonight's forecast: "There's not going to be snow in Times Square."

Even so, Nygaard intends to try again next year.

"It's going to hit," he said. "And we'll have a lot of very happy people."

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